News and events in Probably Stolen: surplus, shortage and the calendar
Station events change the market price of whole item types for a few days. A “Surplus” lowers prices (for example Water Supply Surplus, -25% on water), a “Shortage” raises them (Medical Supplies Shortage, +50% on medical items). You read the ongoing events in the newspaper, plan around them with the calendar, and can learn about some of them in advance from Intel Slips and tip sellers.
What kinds of events are there?
| Kind | What it is | Price effect |
|---|---|---|
| Market events | Random station news: harvests, water plant trouble, power cuts, mining returns. The ones that matter to your wallet. | Yes, by item type |
| Faction operations | Security, Revolution, Lower Levels, Upper Levels and Black Market actions (raids, riots, aid drives, martial law) | Some of them |
| Cosmetic news | Filler such as a local artist showcase. Shown when little else is going on | None |
| Calendar days | Rent due, mortgage payment, Cartel visit, lottery draw | None |
Barter offers are not affected by ongoing events, and neither are the fixed prices at the Commissary (only the stock changes).
How do I read the news?
Click the newspaper in your store (tooltip: “Read the local newspaper”) to see the ongoing events. If nothing is going on, the paper prints “All Quiet In The Lower Levels”. The Unsubscribed starting perk removes the daily newspaper, so you learn about events only through prices and customers. When an event changes a price you also get a note like “{item} Market Price Changed Due To {event}”.
The calendar (click it in the store) shows the day number and weekday, rent or mortgage due dates, and events you already know about, including future ones. Day 1 is a Monday. Some things follow the weekday: the lottery draw (Saturday, once the lottery is unlocked), Trade Board visits from day 38 (Trade license), and the “Fresh Dump” event at the Dumping Ground (Wednesday, see Scavenging).
Which market events can happen?
From day 6 (day 1 if you skipped the intro) the game rolls each morning for a new market event, as long as fewer than three are already running: 50% with none active, 35% with one, 25% with two. The pick is weighted (the weight column), and an event cannot repeat until it has ended plus a cooldown, which is 3 days unless noted. An event that pushes the opposite way on an item type that another event already moves can replace the older one.
| Event (in-game name) | Days | Effect on prices | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tourist Influx | 2 | none | 10 |
| Construction Projects | 3 | Material +30% | 15 |
| Material Surplus | 1 | Material -25% | 15 |
| Household Item Surplus | 1 | Household Good -20% | 15 |
| Nutrifruit Seed Shortage | 2 | Food +33%, Seed +50% | 15 |
| Bad Nutrifruit Harvest | 3 | Food +50% | 15 |
| Water Supply Crisis | 3 | Water +50%, Water Ration +50%, Beverage +45%, Water Purification Supply +40% | 15 |
| Minor Water Shortage | 2 | Water +35%, Water Ration +35%, Beverage +30%, Water Purification Supply +25% | 15 |
| Water Supply Surplus | 2 | Water -25%, Water Ration -25%, Beverage -20%, Water Purification Supply -15% | 15 |
| Lower Level Lynching | 1 (cooldown 10) | Weapon, Ammunition, Armor +33% | 8 |
| Oxymore Addiction On The Rise | 2 (cooldown 5) | Medical +25% | 6 |
| Medical Supplies Shortage | 2 | Medical +50% | 15 |
| Power Outage | 2 | Energy Cell +66%, and a blackout in your store | 7 |
| Power Plant Maintenance | 1 | Energy Cell +33% | 10 |
| Who Turned Out The Lights? | 2 | Energy Cell +50%, Weapon +25%, Ammunition +25%, and a station-wide blackout | 4 |
The Power Outage and the station-wide blackout turn off your lights, except with the Makeshift Reactor starting perk or the Power Line Hijack upgrade. The Nutrifruit Seed Shortage stops appearing once the game’s Nutrifruit unlock is reached. Two more events exist in the data but are outside this random pool: Nutrifruit Harvest (Food -20%, 3 days), which only comes through a tip, and Meteor Shower (Material +50%, 3 days), which a storyline schedules.
What do faction operations do to prices?
Factions launch operations that appear as news. These are the ones with price effects.
| Operation (display name) | Days | Effect |
|---|---|---|
| Revolution Mobilization | 2 | Weapon, Ammunition, Medical, Armor +40% |
| Increased Weapons Demand | 3 | Weapon, Ammunition +25% |
| Revolution Raid on Upper Level | 1 | Household Good -30% |
| Revolution Raid on Security | 1 | Medical +75% |
| Security Raid on Black Market | 2 | Narcotic +50%, Weapon and Ammunition +40% |
| Lower Levels Gang War | 3 | Medical +50% |
| Illegal Weapon Shipment | 2 | Weapon and Ammunition -35% |
| Lower Levels Riot | 1 | Food +30%, Weapon and Ammunition +50% |
| Worker Strike | 3 | Water, Water Ration, Food +40% |
| Emergency Medical Aid | 2 | Medical -25%, Food -10% |
| Food Drive | 3 | Food -50%, Water and Water Ration -20% |
| Household Relief Drive | 2 | Household Good -40% |
Security’s Increased Patrols & Checkpoints (4 days), Station-wide Crackdown (2), Raid on Revolutionaries (1), Martial Law (3) and Security Budget Increase (1) have no price changes in the data; the news text says they suppress Revolution and Black Market activity or tighten inspections.
Surplus and shortage: who shows up?
Prices matter, but so do customers. When the combined effect on a main item type reaches +30% or more, a shortage customer comes to buy that type (for example a Worried Resident for Medical with a budget of roughly 150 to 200 credits, or a Lower Level Citizen for Food). The visitor changes tone once the effect passes +75%. When it reaches -30% or less, a seller comes with a wholesale offer (for Food, a Lower Level Trader with packed food). Sums are added across all running events, so stacked events matter more than one.
How do I get warned in advance?
- Intel Slip. With the Lower Levels reputation perk Word on the Street (60 reputation), each morning there is a 4% chance of an Intel Slip: one random market event is scheduled 2 to 3 days ahead, and a slip on your counter says “{event} in N days, lasts for D days.” The slip counts down and vanishes.
- Tip sellers. From day 14 a Shady Customer appears (about once a week, or earlier with a 25% chance after 4 days) and sells a tip for 50 credits, which also gives you a slip. The tips cover: Nutrifruit Harvest, Bad Nutrifruit Harvest, Medical Supplies Shortage, Hidden Storeroom, Mining Expedition Return, Water Treatment Plant Breakdown and Water Supply Surplus.
- Calendar. Any event you know about is shown on its days.
The Mentor’s note on events says the same: events change market prices and “some insiders can sell you tips for events before they happen”.
FAQ
What does a surplus do? It lowers the market price of an item type for a few days, so buy cheap then.
What does a shortage do? It raises prices, so sell what you have in stock, such as Medical during Medical Supplies Shortage.
How long do events last? 1 to 4 days; each event has its own length.
How can I predict events? Reputation perk Word on the Street, paid tips from Shady Customers, and the calendar.
Can I turn the newspaper off? The Unsubscribed starting perk removes it.