Black Market and contraband in Probably Stolen: levels, markups and inspections
Contraband is any item the Republic considers illegal. It sells at a higher markup than normal goods, but Security inspections can seize it, fine you, or arrest you. There are four levels, from Low (usually ignored) to Critical (store closed, you are arrested). The Black Market is the faction that supplies and buys it, and its reputation unlocks perks.
What are the four contraband levels?
The Mentor’s Note “Contraband” (day 9, together with the note on inspections) lists them. The default markups in the 0.46D code are +35%, +70%, +100% and +150% profit margin.
| Level | Markup | If found in an inspection |
|---|---|---|
| Low-Level | +35% | Security usually ignores it; you get a warning and lose Security reputation. The item is kept. |
| Mid-Level | +70% | The item is seized and you lose Security reputation. |
| High-Level | +100% | The item is seized, you pay a fine equal to the base value of the found items, and you lose Security reputation. If you cannot pay, you are arrested. |
| Critical-Level | +150% | The store is shut down and you are arrested. |
Restricted goods (Restricted I, II and III) carry half the Low, Mid and High markups (17%, 35% and 50%).
Player-reported, unverified: a Russian demo playthrough heard +200% for Critical contraband. The 0.46D code uses +150%.
Default levels by item:
- Low: Disposable Keycards (Medical, Engineering, Supply, Service); Liberator 3D Printed Pistol; Nestfire Compact; Nestfire Compact Frame; .22 SR Ammunition; 10mm Ammunition; Stun Baton; Dream Cap Spores; Synthetic Yeast; Cryptographic Desequencer Chips (Supply, Service).
- Mid: Unlicensed Phagimycin Pill; Zyanide Pill; Vial of “Dream Dust”; Disposable Keycards (Security, Research); Ironcraft 10 and its Frame; Sentinel Mk. III.; Lancewell Revolver; .22 SR Ammunition (AP); 10mm Ammunition (AP); Cryptographic Desequencer; Smoke Grenade; Flashbang Grenade; Security Department Evidence Locker; L’ESSENCE Pheromone Perfume; Dream Cap; Chemical Supplies (Restricted); Cryptographic Desequencer Chips (Medical, Engineering).
- High: Phanta Pill; Vial of “Nightmare Dust”; Disposable Keycard (Command); MBS Nerve Gas; Peacemaker Heavy SMG; Rampart Dual-Action Shotgun; Plastic Explosive (also Armed); Security Department Supply Crate; Nightmare Cap; Dream Cap Nightmare Hydroponic Module; Neural Core Module (Capped); Cryptographic Desequencer Chip (Security).
- Critical: Neural Core Module (Uncapped); Cryptographic Desequencer Chip (Command).
What happens in a Security inspection?
An inspector arrives, and you can accept the inspection. Security searches your inventory, the counter, the back area and the display case, and the trash can unless the officer is a lazy inspector. Mentor’s Note: different officers inspect differently; some take a bribe, others do not search every container.
- The result depends on the highest contraband level found.
- Your Security reputation drops by a sum over every found item: 1, plus the item’s level, plus extra for stolen goods of high value, capped at 25 per inspection.
- Luck can save you: if you roll lucky, the officer overlooks everything.
- A clean inspection with nothing found or concealed gives +3 Security reputation.
- After a non-arrest inspection you receive an Inspection Report slip listing the seized items.
The Clemency network upgrade from Joe Wild (one use) converts an arrest for Critical contraband, or for a High fine you cannot pay, into a warning.
How do I hide contraband from an inspection?
- Smuggler’s Bay. Items inside a Smuggler’s Bay, a Smuggler’s Bay (Modified) or a Mini Smuggler’s Bay are not searched. The Fence scenario starts with one.
- Locked or hidden items. Items marked hidden, locked, or behind a lock are not counted, but they are recorded as concealed, so you do not get the +3 reputation.
- Store poster. The hidden storage behind the poster is searched only if the poster is pulled aside.
- A bribe. If the inspector is the bribable kind, you get the option to bribe him instead of the search. The price is 100 + 2 × the day number − 2 × your Security reputation, kept between 40 and 400 credits. The bribe ends the inspection but is recorded as the crime Bribery of Security Personnel.
- Do not leave it in the open. Your inventory, the counter, the back area, the display case and (unless the inspector is lazy) the trash can are all searched. Exchange rewards land in the trash can; see the Underground Exchange.
What about stolen items?
Stolen items are separate from contraband. Each has a Heat value; the higher the Heat, the more likely Security recognizes it in an inspection, and sellers give a discount based on Heat. Heat slowly decreases over time. The Mentor’s note on stolen items arrives on day 13.
Which customers refuse contraband?
Some customers carry the “No Contraband” tag and will not accept it; keep it off the counter.
What do Black Market and Security perks do?
| Faction | Reputation | Perk | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Black Market | −40 | Blacklisted | Customers stop selling contraband to you, you are barred from the Underground Exchange and the Janitorial Service costs double |
| Black Market | −60 | Uninsurable | No insurance services |
| Black Market | 0 | Honor Amongst Thieves | Reputation is lost 1.5 times faster |
| Black Market | 20 | Small Time Broker | Petty Thieves visit more often, wares improve with higher reputation |
| Black Market | 40 | Safe Hands | A Thief visits once per week, all Thieves offer improved wares |
| Black Market | 60 | Underground Network | Advance notice of most Black Market events |
| Security | −20 | Watchlist | Investigations progress 1.2 times faster |
| Security | −40 | Must Be The Wind | Security ignores your alarms |
| Security | −60 | Most Wanted | Investigations 1.5 times faster |
| Security | −80 | No Stone Unturned | More frequent inspections and no lazy or shady inspectors |
| Security | −100 | By Any Means | Immediate arrest regardless of evidence |
| Security | 60 | Trusted | Inspections less frequent, investigations slower, advance warning of Security operations |
| Security | 100 | VIP | No more inspections and no thieves |
FAQ
How much profit does contraband give? Low +35%, Mid +70%, High +100%, Critical +150%.
Is Low-Level contraband safe? It is usually ignored and never seized, but it still costs reputation if found.
What ends the run? A Critical contraband discovery, or a High-Level fine you cannot pay, ends in arrest unless you have used Clemency.
Can I bribe an inspector? Only the bribable ones offer it, for 40 to 400 credits depending on the day and your Security reputation.
Do Fence starts have an advantage? Yes: a Smuggler’s Bay, a stock of contraband, extra Black Market reputation, lower Security reputation and the Underground Exchange from the start.